We’ve been reading many predictions about what’s in store for 2012. But, in case 2011 is a long distant memory, check out this summary from Lianna Brinded at Euromoney for a whirlwind tour of last year. Below is a summary of some of the news articles we’ve read with their predictions for 2012.
RISK
Eurasia Group published their Top Risks for 2012. They write, “The most important macro theme for 2012: The world’s key political decision-makers will be focused heavily on questions of domestic economic stability at the expense of international security concerns at a moment when politics is having unprecedented impact on the global economy. This conflation of global politics and markets defines the formal end of the 9/11 era, a moment when decision-makers sought to isolate globalization from international security concerns.” The end of the 9/11 era is their top risk for 2012. Here is the full article, Eurasia Group’s Top Risks 2012.
ECONOMICS
The Eurozone gets a lot of attention in the press.
A Reuters' poll suggests the pound will hold firm versus the Euro in 2012.
Simon Smith, Chief Economist at FxPro says 2012 will decides euro’s fate, as muddling through becomes unaffordable and politically unsustainable. He also thinks a country (Greece) will leave the Euro.
Chris Skinner, published an excellent article on his Financial Services Club Blog earlier in the week where he sums up his four predictions:
- Asia’s light continues to shine, but not quite as bright
- American equities is the place to invest
- There will be a major European bank failure
- A country will leave the Eurozone
This is the full article, 2012: an economic outlook and we also recommend you read his 2012: a bank technology outlook and his 2012: a banking outlook articles.
We watched this twenty minute YouTube video that was published on the ZeroHedge website, a Q&A session between Michael Hewson, Senior Market Analyst at CMC Markets and Megan Greene, Senior Economist at Roubini Global Economic. Megan also predicts Greece will leave the Euro and much, much more.
Keith Mullin, Editor-At-Large of International Financing Review (IFRR) wrote in his twitter feed there are "very few positives for financial markets." Here is his article. You know any article that starts with the statement You Thought 2011 Was Tough? is not one that is going to offer much cheer. And neither is the one that tells us that recession in Europe is the number one economic issue for 2012. Of course it's not just the Eurozone. @bloombergview tweeted earlier in the week, Why we're uneasy about the global economy in 2012.
But at least Kate Burgess in the Financial Times (subscription) writes asset managers hope that 2012 will be a brighter year.
And! More good cheer! A new study has suggested that America's largest banks are set to enjoy increased levels of profit throughout 2012.
DATA, TRADING & TECHNOLOGY
Now more specifically to our industry...Here is a selection of industry articles. Big Data is very topical, as is RDR and Regulations.
A readers' poll in ISS-Mag talks about the top five IT Spends for 2012. They are 1) Swaps trading and central clearing, 2) Data Management, 3) Risk Management, 4) Cloud Computing and 5) Corporate Actions. Another article informed us that wealth management firms plan to boost IT spending in 2012. This Forbes' published summary of 2012 cloud predictions is very interesting.
On data, DataQualityPro.com provide 5 Data Quality Predictions for 2012 and one pundit predicts 2012 will be the year companies will learn to love Big Data.
On trading, The Seven Global Market Structure Trends for 2012 written by @marketstructure for @SecTechMonitor is an excellent read.
DerivSource, the online community and information source for professionals active in derivatives processing, technology and related services, runs an article on ISDA's operational priorities and projects for 2012, written by ISDA's Julian Day, Head of Market Infrastructure.
Here's The Wall Street Journal's 2012 Regulatory and Market Landscape with a look ahead for The Volcker Rule, CFTC, SEC, CFPB, deals and deal-makers, IPOs, hedge funds, commodities, exchanges, high frequency traders, stock trading and ETFs.
And finally! We are on the Final RDR Countdown and Money Marketing says 2012 "marks the last year of the pre-RDR era and many advisers will have a fight on their hands to ensure they are ready in time."
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